Friday, July 31, 2009 1:15 AM
by Tom Drake
This is a chart drawn by Sergey Tarasov: http://www.timingsolution.com/ . He obtained long term data series for the AA investment grade corporate bond yield, US P/E ratios, and PPI. I think these monthly data going back into the 18th century came from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Tarasov then detrended the data to make it more amenable to analyzing true oscillations. Subsequently he performed a standard Fourier spectrum analysis of the detrended data and synthesized the highest amplitude cycles found into a master cycle. For the bond yield series he found a 62 year long wave cycle from top to top and bottom to bottom. This is interesting in that the last bottom was 1948/49 which has always been considered a long wave bottom by many people eyeballing many market and economic factors. The next low in Tarasov’s long wave cycle would be 2011.