Replacement Viral Strain Theory Alive & Well with Gardasil

gardasil_1327405210Holy Hormones Journal It appears that the replacement theory for other oncogenic strains of HPV post-vaccination with Gardasil and Cervarix is real. This is why there is an increase in abnormal pap smears, cervical dysplasia, and cervical cancer in a demographic of girls with a historically low incident rate.

Since Gardasil and Cervarix have been on the market and up until March 2013, 519 reports of abnormal pap smears, 209 reports of cervical dysplasia and 62 cases of cervical cancer have been reported to VAERS – the Vaccine Adverse Event Tracking System.  It is estimated that only 1 to 10% of the vaccinated population is reporting.

ACOG recently raised their pap test guidelines to age 21.  This means if a girl was vaccinated at age 9 – she will not be required to get a pap for 11 years; whether or not she is sexually active.

Although HPV has not been directly linked to cervical cancer (NCI) – it is present amongst other infections.

Not to mention that ACOG is also pushing synthetic hormone implants (Merck), IUDs and injections on a population of girls too young to advocate condom use for themselves.

This is all wrong.

Am J Epidemiol. 2013 May 9. [Epub ahead of print]

Epidemiologic Approaches to Evaluating the Potential for Human Papillomavirus Type Replacement Postvaccination.


Currently, 2 vaccines exist that prevent infection by the genotypes of human papillomavirus (HPV) responsible for approximately 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Although vaccination is expected to reduce the prevalence of these HPV types, there is concern about the effect this could have on the distribution of other oncogenic types. According to basic ecological principles, if competition exists between ≥2 different HPV types for niche occupation during natural infection, elimination of 1 type may lead to an increase in other type(s). Here, we discuss this issue of “type replacement” and present different epidemiologic approaches for evaluation of HPV type competition. Briefly, these approaches involve: 1) calculation of the expected frequency of coinfection under independence between HPV types for comparison with observed frequency; 2) construction of hierarchical logistic regression models for each vaccine-targeted type; and 3) construction of Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models to evaluate sequential acquisition and clearance of HPV types according to baseline HPV status. We also discuss a related issue concerning diagnostic artifacts arising when multiple HPV types are present in specific samples (due to the inability of broad-spectrum assays to detect certain types present in lower concentrations). This may result in an apparent increase in previously undetected types postvaccination.


HPV type replacement, cervical cancer, human papillomavirus, vaccination

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Author: Leslie Carol Botha

Author, publisher, radio talk show host and internationally recognized expert on women's hormone cycles. Social/political activist on Gardasil the HPV vaccine for adolescent girls. Co-author of "Understanding Your Mood, Mind and Hormone Cycle." Honorary advisory board member for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and member of the Society for Menstrual Cycle Research.