Approximately 1 in 5600 people reported adverse reactions to the H1N1 vaccine compared to 1 in 560 for the HPV vaccines.
This month wraps up 2009, a year that had more VAERS reports than ever before. In past months I have focused on the growth of VAERS reports related to both Seasonal and H1N1 Flu as well as HPV vaccinations. This month, I will do something different and explore a question of vaccine safety.
Which vaccine has a higher chance of causing a VAERS injury report to be filed: H1N1 Flu or Human Papiloma Virus (HPV)?
The chance of having a VAERS injury report filed is equal to the number of VAERS reports, divided by the number of people vaccinated. We can ask MedAlert or CDC Wonder for the number of VAERS reports, but we don’t know how many people were actually vaccinated. However, many estimates have been made, and we can find these numbers on the Internet.
First let’s look at H1N1 Flu. What percentage of people given an H1N1 Flu vaccination file a VAERS injury report?
The Washington Post claims that 20% of Americans got the H1N1 Flu vaccine (as of January 16, 2010). They claim that this is 61 million people.
How many VAERS reports were generated by these 61 million vaccinations? As of January 29, there are 9319 reports of injuries associated with H1N1 Flu. And given the rate of growth of these reports, this number can easily grow to 12,000 in the next two months (see graph). Given that it takes a few months for people to get their injury reports into the VAERS system, it is not unreasonable to consider 12,000 as a conservative estimate.